President Trump’s firm stance allows the last nuclear arms treaty with Russia to expire tomorrow, rejecting endless globalist deals that handcuff America’s strategic superiority.
Story Snapshot
- New START expires February 5, 2026, ending over 50 years of bilateral nuclear limits for the first time since the 1970s.
- Trump prioritizes a stronger deal including China, dismissing Putin’s weak extension proposal as insufficient.
- Both nations signal continued adherence to old limits despite no verification, preserving stability without binding constraints.
- Senate ratification hurdles block quick replacements, protecting U.S. sovereignty from hasty global commitments.
- Timing challenges globalist non-proliferation agendas ahead of NPT conference, signaling America’s independent path.
Treaty Expiration Ends Arms Control Era
New START, signed in 2010 by Obama and Medvedev, expires February 5, 2026, after its single five-year extension ended negotiations. The treaty capped deployed warheads at 1,550, launchers at 800, and deployed delivery systems at 700 per side. Verification inspections ceased in 2023 after Russia suspended participation amid Ukraine tensions. This marks the first time since the early 1970s without legally binding limits on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces. President Trump views the lapse without alarm, focusing on national interests over outdated frameworks.
Trump Rejects Putin’s Proposal for Better Deal
Russian President Putin proposed a voluntary one-year extension of New START limits in September 2025. Trump initially called it “good” but later stated “if it expires, it expires,” promising a superior agreement including China. No formal U.S. response followed, and Moscow reports lacking clear American contacts. Both countries continue signaling compliance with numerical caps despite absent data exchanges and inspections. Trump’s approach avoids rushed deals that ignore China’s rising nuclear threat, prioritizing comprehensive strategic stability.
Historical Context and Structural Limits
New START evolved from SALT I in 1969 through START I and SORT, spanning decades of U.S.-Soviet arms control. Its ten-year term plus one extension made expiration inevitable without replacement. Russia suspended implementation February 21, 2023, citing U.S. Ukraine aid; America reciprocated by halting data shares. Experts note the treaty retained value through mutual restraint expectations. Senate’s two-thirds ratification requirement poses barriers to new pacts, contrasting Russia’s easier Federal Assembly process. This protects U.S. leverage in negotiations.
Trump’s disinterest in mere extensions aligns with conservative priorities: robust deterrence without concessions to adversaries who violated trust first. Limited data on exact compliance exists without inspections, but no large breaches appear.
Strategic Implications Favor U.S. Strength
Short-term, verification loss creates compliance uncertainty, though both signal adherence. Long-term, it ends the arms control era, potentially spurring modernization but freeing America from caps amid China threats. Expiration precedes the 2026 NPT Review Conference, where non-nuclear states decry lost restraint signals. U.S. allies question deterrence, yet Trump’s vision includes trilateral talks for true balance.
Global security faces heightened miscalculation risks without frameworks, yet conservatives see opportunity to rebuild from strength. Broader arms control architecture has crumbled, leaving confidence measures only. Trump’s leadership rejects globalist weakness, restoring deterrence rooted in American power.
Sources:
New START Expiration: What It Means and What’s Next – ICAN
New START at a Glance – Arms Control Association
End of New START – Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation
US and Russia’s Nuclear Weapons Treaty Set to Expire – Chatham House
