(RightWing.org) – Opinion polls are boosting Democrat hopes of taking the White House next month, but real-world evidence shows their confidence could be misplaced, at least according to Wall Street analysts. Polls have often got it wrong in the past, but economic indicators are much more reliable. One of the key indicators is pointing strongly at a Trump victory.
President Donald Trump has a very good chance of winning the 2020 presidential election against Joe Biden, if a more than 200-year overview of the stock market is to be believed. https://t.co/iW6wfl0cg4
— CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) October 20, 2020
The Socionomics Institute, which analyzes political trends in economic terms, has examined the link between stock market performance and the re-election of incumbent presidents. What they found is that there have been 16 times where an incumbent has been running and the stock market has risen more than 20% in the previous three years – and in 14 of those elections the incumbent won. Stocks have risen strongly under President Trump, despite the economic chaos caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Unless he falls to the same bad luck as John Adams in 1800 or George HW Bush in 1992, the economic data says he has an 87% chance of a second term. That takes some of the shine off the Democrats’ poll numbers.
Copyright 2020, RightWing.org