Be Skeptical of Early Vote Predictions

Be Skeptical of Early Vote Predictions

( – With one week to go before election day, more early voting ballots have already been cast in 2020 than in 2016. According to the Associated Press, 58.6 million ballots have been cast so far. However, that doesn’t tell us who’s winning or losing, and any attempts to do so are folly. Yet, that’s exactly what the media is doing subtly.

Since mail-in voting started a few weeks ago, the press reported that Democrats are crushing it over Republicans. On October 15, 51% of ballots received were by Democrats and 25% by Republicans. On Sunday, October 25, Democrats still led 51% to 31%.

So what?

Is that supposed to be a surprise when the public has been warned about serious, potential problems with mail-in voting? Already, mail-in ballots have been lost, stolen, or destroyed. The public was warned that the postal service could lose mail. In one instance, a postal carrier was caught trashing ballots.

In an election where 1% of the vote could decide the winner, all votes should be counted before making assumptions about who is winning and losing, and for a good reason.

Why Do Early Voting Predictions Matter?

Whether it’s out of curiosity or nefarious purposes, assuming how people vote through mail based on party registration is misleading and not fair to voters. For one, just because a lot of Democrats and a few Republicans have voted to date doesn’t mean they voted for their party in the era of Trump.

The subtle assumption being made is that 100% of Republicans will vote for Trump. Likewise, 100% of Democrats are voting for Biden. In either case, we know that neither candidate will receive 100% support from their party. Some anti-Trump Republicans have endorsed Biden, and polls show that Trump is gaining support in the Black and Latino communities, which are largely registered as Democrats.

Here’s another consideration not being discussed in the press. In 2016, Pew Research said that 42% of independents voted for Hillary Clinton, and 43% voted for Donald Trump. At this point, the media is only reporting the number of ballots received by the two major parties. How many ballots were received to date from independents? How will they break? No one knows — and that’s the point.

Voting Just Getting Started

While 58.6 million people voted thus far, it’s only one-third of total registered voters nationwide. This week, many states will finish early in-person voting, while mail-in ballots in most states can be received days after the election so long as it’s postmarked on or before November 3.

It’s still early, and there is a lot of voting to be done between now and the time the polls close on election night. There’s an old saying: don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched. As the media reports the numbers over the coming days, don’t assume the number of mail-in votes based on political party will reflect the election’s outcome. Tens of millions of Americans, many of them Republicans, will vote on election day.

The point is… however you’re going to vote – VOTE! Don’t consider what the media is saying. Let your voice be heard when the final vote tally is completed.

By Don Purdum, Freelance Contributor

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